With Kim’s escalating rhetoric about war with the South and the West, China needs its leverage to preserve peace in its backyard and cannot afford to be seen alienating its only treaty ally. This places China in a serious bind without any real options except to hope that the EU and U.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a gift dropped in North Korea’s lap, but it has run with it. The opportunity to test North Korean weapons, and give North Korean troops some actual combat experience is no doubt welcomed by Kim Jong-un.