It’s not unreasonable to approach election polls from a position of mild — maybe even more-than-mild — skepticism. In some cases this year, they’re projecting remarkable things, like Democrats having ...

Pop quiz. Which Senate seat are Democrats more likely to flip: Ohio or Maine? This might seem like an easy question. In 2024, Kamala Harris won the Pine Tree State by 7 points, but lost the Buckeye ...

In the history of Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight election forecasts, I’m not sure there’s ever really been a case where we’ve been completely on the other side of the conventional wisdom — in other ...

Still Counting Episode 3 is out. Video version above, audio below. We’ll be publishing these each week here at the newsletter. But for faster access, please subscribe on YouTube or follow us on Apple ...

One thing I’ll remember about this primary season is the continuous stream of broken fundraising records. First, Texas gave us the most expensive Senate primary in US history, with over $122 million ...

Last night, Marist College published a poll showing Democrat Josh Turek leading by 8 points in Iowa’s Senate race. Our Silver Bulletin polling average forecasts a much closer race — with Turek ahead ...

This has been one of those weeks when it feels like everything Silver Bulletin covers is happening at once. Democrats have continued to have a very good run of polling since Labor Day, with our Senate ...

The first official episode of Still Counting is out! Clare, Galen, and I discussed the most competitive Senate races, the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention, Trump’s standing within the Republican ...